June 9, 2026
The Forge Community Iceplex Market Analysis
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Forge Community Iceplex is proposed as Central Oregon’s first year-round, two-sheet ice rink. This market analysis examines the demographic, economic, and competitive landscape surrounding the proposed facility in Bend, Oregon, and confirms that market conditions strongly support its development.
Key Positive Market Indicators
- No year-round dedicated ice rink exists in Central Oregon
- Bend’s population is projected to grow 7.8% by 2030 — nearly double Oregon’s statewide rate
- City of Bend median household income of $105,080 — well above the national median of $81,624
- Recreation spending in Bend scores 123 on the Spending Potential Index (national average: 100)
- Active seasonal hockey program already operating — confirmed local demand and participant base
- Ice skating and hockey participation rates above national averages within the City of Bend
- A 90-minute drive-time service area encompassing 272,681 residents
- Oregon USA Hockey registrations grew 11.6% over ten years, with a 28.3% surge post-pandemic
Summary Finding
Demographic data, GIS-based participation rates, and analysis of existing facilities confirm that the greater Bend area can support a year-round two-sheet ice rink. The Forge is positioned to serve unmet local demand, attract regional tournaments, and generate sustained economic impact for Central Oregon.
SECTION I: MARKET CONTEXT & SERVICE AREAS
The Unmet Need
Central Oregon’s ice sports community has outgrown available infrastructure. The Pavilion at Bend Park & Recreation District operates a single covered-outdoor sheet on a seasonal basis (November through April). No other year-round ice rink exists within the city. Families report driving three or more hours for consistent ice access. Youth programs reach capacity before each season begins. Adult leagues operate with waitlists. The demand is not projected — it is already present.
Service Area Definition
The primary service area for The Forge is defined as the 90-minute drive-time radius from Bend, Oregon. This radius captures residents who will travel regularly for programs and events. A broader regional draw of 90 to 300 miles applies to tournament participants and visiting teams.
| Service Zone | Drive Time | Estimated Population | Key Cities Included |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Bend | Local | 109,500 (2025 est.) | Bend |
| Primary Service Area | Up to 90 min. | 272,681 (2025 est.) | Bend, Redmond, Prineville, Sisters, La Pine |
| Regional Tournament Draw | 90 – 180 mi. | Draws from Salem, Eugene, Portland area | State/regional event participants |
| Extended Tournament Draw | 180 – 300 mi. | Pacific Northwest and Northern CA | National-level events |
SECTION II: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Population Growth
Bend is one of Oregon’s fastest-growing cities. Population growth in the city and primary service area significantly outpaces both the state and national rates, pointing to an expanding user base for recreation and sports programming.
| Geography | 2020 Census | 2025 Estimate | 2030 Estimate | % Change (2025–2030) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Bend | 99,309 | 109,500 | 118,870 | +7.8% |
| Primary Service Area | 248,976 | 272,681 | 293,324 | +7.1% |
| State of Oregon | — | — | — | +3.8% |
| United States | — | — | — | +2.0% |
Median Age
The City of Bend’s median age of 40.9 is consistent with the Oregon and national medians. A lower median age in the city compared to the broader primary service area reflects a stronger concentration of young families — the primary demographic for youth ice programs.
| Geography | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Bend | 39.4 | 40.9 | 42.1 |
| Primary Service Area | 43.1 | 43.8 | 44.9 |
| Oregon | 39.9 | 40.9 | 42.0 |
| National | 38.8 | 39.6 | 40.5 |
Households with Children
Families with children are the primary market for ice facilities and programs. The City of Bend and primary service area both show household-with-children rates consistent with the state average.
| Geography | Households w/ Children | % of All Households |
|---|---|---|
| City of Bend | 11,927 | 27.7% |
| Primary Service Area | 28,739 | 27.8% |
| Oregon | 468,986 | 27.6% |
| National | — | 29.9% |
Income & Spending Capacity
Median household income in the City of Bend is significantly above both state and national levels. High incomes correlate directly with willingness and ability to pay for youth sports programs, memberships, and recreational activities.
| Geography | 2025 Median HH Income | 2030 Projected |
|---|---|---|
| City of Bend | $105,080 | $121,050 |
| Primary Service Area | $94,563 | $108,075 |
| Oregon | $84,398 | $97,555 |
| National | $81,624 | $92,476 |
In the City of Bend, 64.8% of households earn over $75,000 per year, compared to 54.1% nationally. Only 10.8% of Bend households fall below $25,000, versus 14.2% nationally. This income profile strongly supports premium recreational programming and membership models.
Recreation Spending Potential
The Spending Potential Index (SPI) measures local spending relative to a national baseline of 100. Bend residents consistently outspend national averages across all recreation-related categories.
| Category | City of Bend SPI | Primary Service Area SPI | Oregon SPI | National Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fees for Participant Sports | 130 | 114 | 100 | 100 |
| Fees for Recreational Lessons | 134 | 112 | 100 | 100 |
| Social/Recreation/Club Membership | 127 | 110 | 99 | 100 |
| Admission to Sporting Events | 124 | 110 | 96 | 100 |
| Entertainment & Recreation (Overall) | 123 | 111 | 100 | 100 |
SECTION III: PARTICIPATION & DEMAND DATA
Ice Sports Participation — City of Bend Market Potential Index
The Market Potential Index (MPI) measures the likelihood of local residents to participate in a given activity relative to the national average (MPI of 100). Bend residents show above-average interest in ice sports, winter activities, and NHL hockey.
| Activity | Expected Adults (City of Bend) | % of Population | MPI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ice Skating (12 months) | 2,434 | 2.8% | 108 |
| Attend NHL Hockey Game (12 months) | 1,952 | 2.2% | 120 |
| Skiing (Downhill, 12 months) | 3,147 | 3.6% | 131 |
| Snowboarding (12 months) | 1,609 | 1.8% | 116 |
| Attend Any Sporting Event (12 months) | 19,381 | 22.0% | 111 |
Projected Participation Growth — Ice Activities
Using National Sporting Goods Association participation rates adjusted for Bend’s age distribution, income levels, and regional statistics, the following participation projections are estimated for ice hockey and figure/recreational skating through 2030.
| Activity | Avg. Rate | 2020 Participants | 2025 Participants | 2030 Participants | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ice Hockey | 1.3% | 1,152 | 1,278 | 1,392 | +240 |
| Ice / Figure Skating | 3.1% | 2,843 | 3,154 | 3,435 | +592 |
Note: These figures represent estimated participation in the activity — not projected facility attendance. Actual attendance will be a function of programming, pricing, and access. These numbers represent the addressable participant base.
National Participation Trends — Ice Sports
Ice sports participation has grown nationally over the past decade, reflecting sustained and growing interest in the activity.
| Activity | 2015 Participation | 2024 Participation | 10-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ice / Figure Skating | 7.6 million | 8.8 million | +15.8% |
| Ice Hockey | 3.3 million | 3.5 million | +6.1% |
Oregon USA Hockey Registration Trends
USA Hockey registration data for Oregon provides a direct measure of organized hockey participation. Statewide registrations increased 11.6% over the decade from 2015 to 2025, with a 28.3% surge following the pandemic. The largest growth segments were ages 7–8 and 15–16, indicating strong youth pipeline development.
| Season | Total Oregon Registrations | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2015–16 | 2,647 | Baseline |
| 2019–20 | 2,776 | +4.9% vs. 2015 |
| 2020–21 | 1,917 | –44.8% (pandemic) |
| 2021–22 | 2,672 | +28.3% (recovery) |
| 2022–23 | 2,708 | +1.3% |
| 2023–24 | 2,916 | +7.1% |
| 2024–25 | 2,995 | +2.6% |
SECTION IV: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Current Ice Facilities — 30-Minute Drive Time
All existing ice venues within a 30-minute drive of Bend are outdoor or covered-outdoor facilities operating on a seasonal basis. None offer year-round refrigerated ice. The Forge will be the only facility in the region offering year-round access.
| Facility | Type | Sheets | Season | Programs Offered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Pavilion (Bend P&R) | Covered outdoor | 1 | Nov–Apr | Public, Hockey, Figure Skating, Learn to Skate |
| Seventh Mountain Ice Rink | Outdoor | 1 | Winter only | Public skating only |
| Sunriver Village Ice Rink | Covered outdoor | 1 | Seasonal | Public skating only |
| Redmond Ice Rink | Outdoor (portable) | 1 | CLOSED 2024–25 | None (facility failed) |
The closure of the Redmond rink due to mechanical failure further concentrates demand in Bend. The City of Redmond is now exploring a new year-round facility, signaling regional recognition of unmet need — and confirming that The Forge will serve a market with no current year-round alternatives.
The Forge Competitive Position
Within the nearest 120-mile radius, the only indoor year-round ice facilities are The Rink Exchange in Eugene (110 miles) and the Southern Oregon Ice Arena in Medford (170 miles). There is no year-round facility between those cities and Bend. The Forge fills a significant geographic gap in Central Oregon’s sports infrastructure.
SECTION V: REGIONAL TOURNAMENT & SPORTS TOURISM POTENTIAL
Drive Market Summary
Bend’s geography positions it within reach of a large and sports-active regional population. The following data reflects households and sporting event participation within driving distance of the proposed facility.
| Drive Distance | Households | Population Growth Rate | Median HH Income | MPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 Minutes | 101,595 | 1.44% | $79,536 | 104 |
| 120 Minutes | 113,017 | 1.35% | $77,374 | 101 |
| 300 Minutes | 2,351,822 | 0.54% | $75,293 | 102 |
| Drive Distance | Attended Sporting Event (12 Mo) | MPI | Participated in Any Sport (2023) | MPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 Minutes | 34,088 | 103 | 452,307 | 106 |
| 120 Minutes | 37,383 | 102 | 503,125 | 105 |
| 300 Minutes | 791,530 | 102 | 10,869,343 | 105 |
NHL & Figure Skating Audience — Regional Interest
Interest in NHL hockey and figure skating among regional households consistently exceeds the national average, underscoring the depth of the addressable audience for The Forge’s programming and event hosting.
| Drive Distance | Watched NHL (TV) | MPI | Watched Figure Skating (TV) | MPI | NHL Super Fan | MPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 Minutes | 15,068 | 111 | 10,135 | 116 | 4,164 | 109 |
| 120 Minutes | 16,682 | 109 | 11,226 | 115 | 4,627 | 108 |
| 300 Minutes | 387,998 | 107 | 245,657 | 105 | 105,035 | 109 |
Tournament Economic Impact Projections
Using a conservative 25% capture rate for events within The Forge’s facility category and geographic market, the following annual economic activity is projected from sports tourism events once the facility is operating at mature capacity.
These projections assume two operational sheets, tournament-ready infrastructure (multiple simultaneous games, locker rooms, spectator capacity), and active event sales through regional hockey and skating governing bodies. They do not include local program revenue, memberships, food & beverage, or pro shop.
| Metric | Annual Projection |
|---|---|
| New state, regional, and national tournaments | 9 events |
| Total tournament attendees (athletes, families, officials) | ~16,000 |
| Direct visitor spending | $4.4M+ |
| Hotel room nights generated | ~9,700 |
| Hotel occupancy tax revenue | ~$157,000 |
SECTION VI: CONSUMER PROFILE — WHO COMES TO THE FORGE
Primary Tapestry Segments — City of Bend
ESRI Tapestry Segmentation categorizes Bend’s population into five dominant lifestyle segments. All five share characteristics well-aligned with The Forge’s target market: active families, high disposable income, and strong community orientation.
These segments collectively represent over 63% of the City of Bend’s population. All share above-average spending on recreation and entertainment. The two highest-income segments (Urban Chic and Burbs and Beyond) show entertainment spending indices of 186 and 172, respectively, versus the national baseline of 100.
| Segment | % of City | Median Age | Median HH Income | Key Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burbs and Beyond (K8) | 14.1% | 51.1 | $119,769 | Outdoor lifestyle, community engaged, near nature |
| Urban Chic (H4) | 13.2% | 41.9 | $144,754 | High income, young children, health-focused |
| Modern Minds (D3) | 13.2% | 34.6 | $91,039 | Age 25–44, active vacations, fitness-oriented |
| Dreambelt (K5) | 12.1% | 41.5 | $94,802 | Families, Western suburbs, high labor participation |
| Emerging Hub (D1) | 10.8% | 36.0 | $70,356 | Young professionals, remote workers, fitness |
SECTION VII: MARKET ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The market data assembled in this analysis supports the following conclusions:
| Factor | Finding | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Year-round ice availability | Zero year-round facilities in Central Oregon | Strong positive — unserved market |
| Population growth | Bend: +7.8% by 2030 vs. national +2.0% | Strong positive — growing user base |
| Household income | Bend median: $105,080 vs. national $81,624 | Strong positive — ability to pay |
| Recreation spending | SPI of 123 (lessons: 134) in City of Bend | Strong positive — willing to spend |
| Ice skating MPI | 108 in City of Bend (national avg: 100) | Positive — above-average interest |
| NHL hockey interest | MPI of 120 within 60-min drive | Positive — dedicated fan base |
| Seasonal competition | All existing facilities seasonal, one closed | Strong positive — no year-round rival |
| Tournament draw | 2.3M+ households within 300-min drive | Positive — viable tournament market |
| Oregon USA Hockey | +11.6% registrations over 10 years | Positive — growing organized hockey |
| Household density | 27.7% of Bend HH have children | Consistent with state/national avg |
Conclusion
The Forge Community Iceplex is proposed in a market with no year-round ice competitor, a growing and affluent population, above-average sports participation propensity, and a proven existing hockey community. The demographic and spending data confirm a population ready and financially capable of supporting the facility’s programming model.
The combination of local community programming and regional tournament hosting creates a diversified revenue base that mitigates the operational risks common to single-revenue ice facilities. Market conditions in Bend, Oregon are among the strongest the data can offer for a facility of this type.
For more information about The Forge Community Iceplex, visit www.theforgeice.com or contact the project team directly.